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Middle Harbour Flood Study (draft)

Understanding flood risks in the area

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  2. Middle Harbour Flood Study (draft)
  • Reviewing your submissions

    We asked for your feedback on the draft Middle Harbour Flood Study (draft Study), thank you for your comments. The draft Study was exhibited for over 6 weeks and we received over 60 submissions. Submissions have been sent to the Consultant for review and we will be providing responses in due course.

What's happening?

Identifying and managing flood risks

We are responsible for the identification of flood prone land in the Local Government Area. We also play a key role in the management of risks to life and property from flooding.

One of our most important activities is to increase our community's awareness of flooding so that people are better able to understand and plan for the flood risks they face.

A flood study aims to:

  • define existing flood behaviour (including levels and extents)
  • help identify flooding problem areas in the catchment
  • assess the impacts of climate change.

We have prepared the draft Middle Harbour Flood Study (covering the areas of Belrose, Davidson, Frenchs Forest, Forestville and Killarney Heights). The draft Study will guide future development, help emergency planning, and build a safer community.

We sent letters to all owners of property affected by the flood study. Properties identified as flood affected are shown on the Flood maps tab.

We asked you to get involved by:

  • reading the draft Flood Study report online through the tiles below or in hard copy at the Glen Street Library
  • accessing the draft Flood maps available on the next tab, so you can be well informed on the potential impacts to your property
  • discussing the results and what they mean for your property with Staff and the engineering consultants undertaking the study
  • sharing knowledge to build capacity and resilience within our community
  • providing your submission on the draft Flood Study

Download the draft Study by clicking on the tiles below

  • Draft Study (main text)

  • Appendices (large document)

Map of the study area

Map of the study area

Flood maps

Image 1 of 3

Middle harbour flood planning map

Flood Planning Area

Middle harbour 1% Annual Exceedance Probability extent map

1% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) extent

Middle harbour PMF extent map

Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) extent

Working Group

Project Working Group

The purpose of the Middle Harbour Flood Study Project Working Group is to work with Council and provide feedback from a local perspective. The Working Group was established to provide a forum for discussion between the community, Council, State Government authorities and the Consultant undertaking the study.

The early stages of the project were reviewed by Council’s former Flood Management Committee, which was disbanded in February 2022. The Working Group will review the final stages of the project.

The first meeting was held on Wednesday 10 April 2024. There will likely be a total of 2 or 3 meetings.

The next meeting will be held in April 2026.

Working group members

NameRepresenting

James Ball

Community

Christopher Brownlee

Community

Paul Hackney

Community

Arthur MorelandCommunity

Barry Nolan

Community

John O'BrienCommunity
Fiona CoeDepartment of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water (DCCEEW)
Shelly StingmoreNSW State Emergency Services (SES)
Valerie TulkCouncil - Senior Engineer – Floodplain Management
Charlotte McLoughlinCouncil - Floodplain Management Officer
Download the meeting minutes open in new window

Project history

What has happened so far

We have prepared a draft flood study to identify and map the overland flow paths in the catchments that drain into Middle Harbour. This helps with managing the flood risks in this area. The study area comprises parts of Belrose, Davidson, Frenchs Forest, Forestville and Killarney Heights.

Between 11 February 2022 and 27 March 2022, we asked the local community to help us better understand the flood behaviour in the catchment.

We invited you to share your experiences and knowledge of any flooding in the Middle Harbour catchments by completing our online survey. Of the 645 responses lodged, 193 residents indicated they had experienced flooding in the past. Thank you to everyone who provided feedback. You can view the outcomes of the engagement in the Draft Study documentation. Refer to Sections 3 and 6.3 of the report and for additional information outlining consultation responses see Table B1 and Figures 9 - 11 in the appendices.

This information was used by the Consultant in the preparation of the draft Flood Study, which went on public exhibition from early February until the end of March 2026. Submissions are now being considered.

Resources

Document library

Project Working Group

  • Middle Harbour Flood Study Consultant Presentation to PWG 10 April 2024
    PDF (5.62 MB)
  • Project Working Group Meeting Minutes - 10 April 2024
    PDF (121.48 KB)

How do Flood Studies impact insurances?

  • Flood Data Requirements - Insurance Council Fact Sheet
    PDF (775.87 KB)

Document library

Project Working Group

  • Middle Harbour Flood Study Consultant Presentation to PWG 10 April 2024
    PDF (5.62 MB)
  • Project Working Group Meeting Minutes - 10 April 2024
    PDF (121.48 KB)

How do Flood Studies impact insurances?

  • Flood Data Requirements - Insurance Council Fact Sheet
    PDF (775.87 KB)
  • Flood Insurance Pricing - Insurance Council Fact Sheet
    PDF (840.10 KB)
  • Flood Insurance Risk Information - Insurance Council Fact Sheet
    PDF (167.85 KB)

Council meeting links

  • Council Minutes - 16 Dec 2025, Item 11.1, p.6)
  • Council Report - 16 Dec 2025 (Item 11.1, p.33)
  • Attachments Booklet - 16 Dec 2025 (Item 11.1, p.77)

Council meeting links

  • Council Minutes - 16 Dec 2025, Item 11.1, p.6)
  • Council Report - 16 Dec 2025 (Item 11.1, p.33)
  • Attachments Booklet - 16 Dec 2025 (Item 11.1, p.77)

Public exhibition closed

We held 3 days of meetings with the project team and spoke with many of you over the phone about how the draft Study might affect you.

Key Dates

Engagement timeline

  • Timeline item 1 - complete

    Feb - Mar 2022: Community survey

  • Timeline item 2 - complete

    Jan - Mar 2024: EOI for Project Working Group

  • Timeline item 3 - complete

    Mar 2024 - Late 2025

    Develop draft Middle Harbour Flood Study

  • Timeline item 4 - complete

    Dec 2025: Report to Council

    Council endorsed publicly exhibiting the Study in early 2026

  • Timeline item 5 - complete

    Feb - Mar 2026: Public exhibition of draft study

    6 Feb - 23 March: exhibition period

  • Timeline item 6 - active

    Mid-2026: Report to Council for adoption of study

    We are reviewing your feedback and then will prepare a report to Council for consideration

Register for project updates


Frequently asked questions

Why does Council undertake flood studies?
What areas are included in the Middle Harbour catchments?
Is this the first time that a flood study has been undertaken in this area?

Frequently asked questions

Why does Council undertake flood studies?

Councils in NSW have responsibility for identifying and then managing the risk to life and property from flooding, and must act in accordance with the NSW Flood Prone Land Policy. The Policy is contained in the NSW Government’s Flood Risk Management Manual, and aims to reduce the impact of flooding and flood liability on owners and occupiers of flood prone property.

One of the most important steps in this process is increasing our community’s awareness of flooding so that people are better able to understand and plan for the flood risks they face. Flood studies also enable Council to provide information to emergency services such as the SES and Police to assist with emergency response.

What areas are included in the Middle Harbour catchments?

The study area comprises parts of Belrose, Davidson, Frenchs Forest, Forestville and Killarney Heights.

Is this the first time that a flood study has been undertaken in this area?

The Frenchs Creek Flood Study was completed for the northern part of this study area in 2010. Since then, technology has improved and computer modelling has become more accurate. The Frenchs Creek Flood Study is one of Council’s oldest current flood studies and will be superseded by the Middle Harbour Flood Study. There has not previously been a formal flood study undertaken elsewhere in the study area.

What is the 1% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) event?

The Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) is the chance of a flood of a given or larger size occurring in any one year, expressed as a percentage. The 1% AEP flood has a 1% or 1 in 100 chance of being reached or exceeded in any given year.

This does not mean that if a location floods one year, that it will be flood free for the next 99 years. Also, if it has not flooded for 99 years, it does not mean there will definitely be a flood the next year.

Some parts of Australia have received a couple of 1% AEP floods within a decade of each other, and flood events much larger than the 1% AEP flood can, and do, occur (such as the January 2011 flood in Toowoomba).

What is the Flood Planning Level (FPL)?

The Flood Planning Level (FPL) is defined as the 1% AEP flood level plus an appropriate freeboard. It is used for planning purposes, such as setting the height for floor levels in flood-prone areas. The Flood Planning Area (FPA) is the area of land below the FPL and is subject to flood-related development controls.

The FPL can be calculated as:

FPL = 1% AEP flood level + freeboard (typically 0.5m).

What is Freeboard?

Freeboard is included in the Flood Planning Level as a buffer, to account for factors such as wind, waves, unforeseen blockages, other localised hydraulic effects and uncertainties in the modelling and determination of flood levels. Freeboard is typically 0.5m above a flood level.

What does it mean if my property has been identified as being in the Flood Planning Area (FPA)?

For most people, no action is required other than to be aware of the flood risk on your block. However, property owners who are planning redevelopment of their property should be aware that the draft Study will update the information on flooding in the area, which Council may use in assessing development applications and in applying flood-related development controls.

What is a Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) event?

The Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) event is the largest flood that could conceivably occur at a particular location.

What does it mean if my property has been identified as being in a Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) area?

This event is predicted to be extremely rare, however vulnerable types of development such as hospitals and aged care facilities may need to plan for these events.

For standard residential and commercial developments there would be no flood related development controls.

Where can I get information about flood levels on my property?

To talk with someone at Council about flooding, you can email Council at floodplain@northernbeaches.nsw.gov.au or phone 1300 434 434.

If you need specific information on flooding for a particular property, you can request a Flood Information Report.

​My home is on a hill so why am I flood affected?

If there is significant rain at the top of the hill, the rain will run downhill through low-lying gullies, channels and surface depressions. The speed and depth of floodwaters may be less at the top of the catchment than further down the hill, but still be significant enough to pose a risk.

What is Council doing to manage flood risk?

Council prepares Flood Studies and Plans according to the NSW Government's Flood Risk Management Manual (2023), and implements associated recommendations with the financial and technical assistance of NSW Government through its Flood Prone Land Policy.

Development controls on buildings in a flood zone are an effective way of protecting life and properties from flood risk.

Additional ways that Council manages flooding in the area include installing and monitoring a flood warning network, raising flood awareness in the community, and opening lagoon entrances to lower water levels.

​How does Council plan future drainage upgrades?

Council maintains a capital works delivery program which is reviewed each year in line with Council’s Stormwater Asset Management Plan. Council prioritises stormwater infrastructure improvements based on the latest data, impact on the community, impact on the environment and cost benefit ratio to maximise the benefit to the whole community having regard to competing obligations and limited resources.

​What does Council do to reduce blockage of drainage, pipes and pits?

Council follows a regular maintenance program for reducing blockage of drainage, pipes and pits.

In addition, prior to large, forecasted rain events, Council cleans pipes and pits at known problem and hotspot areas. Council also uses street sweeper trucks to clean gutters. During storm events, pipes can become blocked with rubbish, leaves and branches. A drainage, cleaning and maintenance request can be made via Council’s website.

​What should I do in the event of a flood?

If it is a life-threatening situation call 000. Otherwise, the NSW State Emergency Service (SES) can be contacted on 132 500.

The SES website provides information on what to do during an emergency and how to plan and prepare for a flood.

Where can I find out about Council’s flood related development controls?

Flood related development controls in this area can be found in the Warringah Local Environment Plan (Clauses 5.21 and 5.22) and the Warringah Development Control Plan (Part E11), which can be viewed at https://www.northernbeaches.nsw.gov.au/planning-and-development/planning-controls.

Will this flood study affect my insurance premiums?

Councils in New South Wales have a legal responsibility for identifying flood behaviour. While insurance companies do get access to flood studies through the NSW Government, which provides funding for the studies, this information is generally supplemented by information from multiple other commercial and proprietary sources. With more accurate flood information, insurance premiums in flood affected areas may be lower than if insurers rely solely on their own risk assessments, which often adopt conservative assumptions.

Individual insurers assess flood risk differently and may consider property-specific information such as floor levels and building materials. A more resiliently built home would suffer less damage during a flood event.

The Insurance Council of Australia Factsheets on the Resources tab contain more detailed information.

How has climate change been considered?

The potential impacts of climate change have been considered as part of the study. To understand potential changes in flood behaviour due to increased intensity of rainfall, a range of very large flood events were modelled. This analysis showed that resulting flood levels are typically increased by approximately 0.2m to 0.3m on key overland flow paths. New overland flow paths form in several locations in these very large events.

Council has prepared this study with financial assistance from the NSW and Commonwealth Governments through the Natural Disaster Resilience Program.

Have an enquiry?

Contact Information
Name Charlotte McLoughlin - Floodplain Management Officer
Phone 1300 434 434 (during business hours)
Email floodplain@northernbeaches.nsw.gov.au
In writing

'Draft Middle Harbour Flood Study' Northern Beaches Council, PO Box 82, Manly NSW 1655.

*The submission count is manually updated and only indicative until the final report is published. It reflects the total online contributions and in-person survey responses. Duplicate submissions will be counted as one unique submission.




Contact customer service on:

1300 434 434

We acknowledge the Traditional Custodians and their Country on which we gather today. By these words we show our respect to all Aboriginal people. We acknowledge Elders past, present and emerging and the spirits and ancestors of the Clans that lived in this area.

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