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Middle Harbour Flood Study

Understanding flood risks in the area

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  2. Middle Harbour Flood Study

What's happening?

  • Council outcome

    We presented the draft Middle Harbour Flood Study to Council at the meeting on 16 December 2025, and Council resolved to publicly exhibit the Study.

    Exhibition will commence early 2026 - follow the page to register for updates and we'll notify you when the exhibition period opens.

    Access the Council meeting resources 

Working Group

Project Working Group

The purpose of the Middle Harbour Flood Study Project Working Group is to work with Council and provide feedback from a local perspective. The Working Group has been established to provide a forum for discussion between the community, Council, State Government authorities and the consultant undertaking the study.

The early stages of the project were reviewed by Council’s former Flood Management Committee which was disbanded in February 2022. The Working Group will review the final stages of the project.

The first two-hour meeting commenced 6pm on Wednesday, 10 April 2024. There will likely be a total of 2 or 3 meetings.

Working group members

NameRepresenting

James Ball

Community

Christopher Brownlee

Community

Paul Hackney

Community

Arthur MorelandCommunity

Barry Nolan

Community

John O'BrienCommunity
Fiona CoeDepartment of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water (DCCEEW)
Shelly StingmoreNSW State Emergency Services (SES)
Valerie TulkCouncil - Senior Engineer – Floodplain Management
Charlotte McLoughlinCouncil - Floodplain Management Officer
Download the meeting minutes open in new window

Project history

What has happened so far

We are preparing a draft flood study to identify and map the overland flow paths in the catchments that drain into Middle Harbour. This will help with managing the flood risks in this area. The study area comprises parts of Belrose, Davidson, Frenchs Forest, Forestville and Killarney Heights.

Between 11 February 2022 and 27 March 2022, we asked the local community to help us better understand the flood behaviour in the catchment.

We invited you to share your experiences and knowledge of any flooding in the Middle Harbour catchments by completing our online survey. Of the 645 responses lodged, 193 residents indicated they had experienced flooding in the past, thank you to everyone who provided feedback.

This information has been used by the Consultant in the preparation of the draft report, which is expected to go on public exhibition in early 2026.

Identifying and managing flood risks

Council is responsible for the identification of flood prone land in the Local Government Area (LGA). We also play a key role in the management of risks to life and property from flooding.

One of our most important activities is to increase our community's awareness of flooding so that people are better able to understand and plan for the flood risks they face.

A flood study aims to:

  • define existing flood behaviour (including levels and extents)
  • help identify flooding problem areas in the catchment
  • assess the impacts of climate change.

Once the draft Middle Harbour Catchments Flood Study has been prepared and put on public exhibition, the community will have the opportunity to discuss the results with Council Staff and the engineering consultants undertaking the study.

The public exhibition will be notified in the weekly Council e-news and all property owners within the Probable Maximum Flood extent will receive a letter at the commencement, with details about how to find more information on Council’s website and how to book a face-to-face meeting or a phone call to discuss flooding on individual properties. Submissions during the public exhibition will be collated and provided to the Consultant for consideration and potential updating of the report.

Map of the study area

Map of the study area

FAQs

Frequently asked questions

Why does Council undertake a flood study?
What areas are included in the Middle Harbour catchments?
Which areas could be flooded?
Is this the first time that a flood study has been undertaken in this area?

Frequently asked questions

Why does Council undertake a flood study?

Councils in New South Wales have responsibility for identifying and managing flooding, and informing the community. Councils follow the NSW Flood Prone Land Policy, which outlines how Councils should manage flooding to reduce the risk of flooding to people and properties.

It also sets consistent guidelines such as using the 1% AEP flood as the industry standard for design and planning purposes. One of the most important steps in this process is increasing our community's awareness of flooding so that people are better able to understand and plan for the flood risks they face.

What areas are included in the Middle Harbour catchments?

The study area comprises parts of Belrose, Davidson, Frenchs Forest, Forestville and Killarney Heights.

Which areas could be flooded?

The Middle Harbour Catchments Flood Study will identify flood behaviour in the study area.

Is this the first time that a flood study has been undertaken in this area?

The Frenchs Creek Flood Study was completed for the northern part of this study area in 2010. Since then, technology has improved and computer modelling has become more accurate. The Frenchs Creek Flood Study is one of Council’s oldest current flood studies, and will be superseded by the Middle Harbour Catchments Flood Study. There has not previously been a formal flood study undertaken elsewhere in the study area.

What should I do in the event of a flood?

If it is a life threatening situation call 000.

During a flood, storm or tsunami, please contact the State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 or visit their website at www.ses.nsw.gov.au.

What is a 1% AEP event?

The Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) is the chance of a flood of a given size occurring in any one year, expressed as a percentage. The 1% AEP flood has a 1% chance (that is a one-in-100 chance) of occurring in any one year.

This does not mean that if a location floods one year, that it will be flood free for the next 99 years. Also, if it has not flooded for 99 years, it does not mean there will definitely be a flood the next year.

Some parts of Australia have received a couple of 1% AEP floods within a decade of each other, and flood events much larger than the 1% AEP flood can, and do, occur (such as the January 2011 flood in Toowoomba).

What is the Flood Planning Level?

The Flood Planning Level (FPL) is the height used to set floor levels for houses in flood prone areas. It is defined as the 1% AEP flood level plus an appropriate freeboard (see explanation of ‘freeboard’ below).

It is used for planning purposes, and land below the FPL is considered to be flood affected and therefore subject to flood related development controls. The FPL can be calculated as:

FPL = 1% AEP flood level + freeboard (typically 0.5m).

What is Freeboard?

Freeboard is included in the Flood Planning Level as a buffer, to account for factors such as wind, waves, unforeseen blockages, other localised hydraulic effects and uncertainties in the modelling and determination of flood levels. Freeboard is usually 0.5m above a flood level.


What is Council doing to manage flood risk?

Council prepares Flood Studies and Plans according to the NSW Government's Flood Risk Management Manual (2023), and implements associated recommendations with the financial and technical assistance of NSW Government through its Flood Prone Land Policy.

Development controls on buildings in a flood zone are an effective way of protecting life and properties from flood risk.

Additional ways that Council manages flooding in the area include installing and monitoring a flood warning network, raising flood awareness in the community, and opening of lagoon entrances to lower water levels.

What can I do to prepare for flooding in my area?

The State Emergency Service has a useful website providing advice on how to manage flood risk. Visit www.floodsafe.com.au for more information.

Where can I find out about Council’s flood related development controls?

Flood related development controls in this area can be found in the Warringah Local Environment Plan (Clauses 5.21 and 5.22) and the Warringah Development Control Plan (Part E11), which can be viewed at https://www.northernbeaches.nsw.gov.au/planning-and-development/building-and-renovations/planning-controls


Resources

Document library

  • Project Working Group Meeting Minutes - 10 April 2024
    PDF (121.48 KB)
  • Middle Harbour Flood Study Consultant Presentation to PWG 10 April 2024
    PDF (5.62 MB)

Document library

  • Project Working Group Meeting Minutes - 10 April 2024
    PDF (121.48 KB)
  • Middle Harbour Flood Study Consultant Presentation to PWG 10 April 2024
    PDF (5.62 MB)

Council meeting links

  • Council Mintues - 15 Dec 2025, Item 11.1, p.6)
  • Council Report - 16 Dec 2025 (Item 11.1, p.33)
  • Attachments Booklet - 16 Dec 2025 (Item 11.1, p.77)

Council meeting links

  • Council Mintues - 15 Dec 2025, Item 11.1, p.6)
  • Council Report - 16 Dec 2025 (Item 11.1, p.33)
  • Attachments Booklet - 16 Dec 2025 (Item 11.1, p.77)

Engagement timeline

  • Timeline item 1 - complete

    Feb - Mar 2022: Community survey

  • Timeline item 2 - complete

    Jan - Mar 2024: EOI for Project Working Group

  • Timeline item 3 - complete

    Mar 2024 - Late 2025

    Develop draft Middle Harbour Flood Study

  • Timeline item 4 - complete

    Dec 2025: Report to Council

    Council endorsed publicly exhibiting the Study in early 2026

  • Timeline item 5 - incomplete

    Early 2026: Public exhibition of draft study

  • Timeline item 6 - incomplete

    Mid-2026: Report to Council for adoption of study

Project manager

Contact Information
Name Valerie Tulk, Senior Engineer - Floodplain Management and Strategic Projects
Phone 1300 434 434 (during business hours)
Email floodplain@northernbeaches.nsw.gov.au
In writing

'Middle Harbour Flood Study' Northern Beaches Council, PO Box 82, Manly NSW 1655.



Contact customer service on:

1300 434 434

We acknowledge the Traditional Custodians and their Country on which we gather today. By these words we show our respect to all Aboriginal people. We acknowledge Elders past, present and emerging and the spirits and ancestors of the Clans that lived in this area.

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